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Logistics Disruptions May Loom as AUKUS and China Mediation Shake Up Global Order



The AUKUS submarine deal, which was announced in September 2021, is a trilateral defense partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The deal centers on the provision of at least eight nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, allowing the country to have a greater presence and ability to counter China in the Indo-Pacific. However, the deal has caused some tension between the involved parties and China. In addition, China has recently been seen as a mediator between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which could have wider implications for the global order. In this article, we will explore the potential impacts of the AUKUS submarine deal and China's role in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran on the future direction of the world.


Firstly, the AUKUS submarine deal is seen as a significant move to contain China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region. However, the deal has caused tension between China and the involved parties, with China warning that AUKUS could set off an arms race and accusing the three countries of setting back work on nuclear non-proliferation (The National, 2023). The deal is also not universally admired in Asia and the Pacific, with the ASEAN bloc expressing its wish to avoid an arms race in the region (Yahoo News, 2023).

The AUKUS submarine deal could potentially lead to heightened tensions and increased likelihood of naval conflicts in the region, which could impact global shipping routes and disrupt logistics. Moreover, the deal is seen as a significant move towards greater military cooperation between the involved parties, which could have wider implications for the global balance of power.


Secondly, China has recently been seen as a mediator between Saudi Arabia and Iran. During talks in Beijing in March 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran reportedly discussed ways to reduce tensions and improve relations between the two countries (Al Jazeera, 2023). This is seen as a significant move towards reducing tensions in the region, which has been fraught with conflict and geopolitical rivalries.

However, China's involvement in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran could also have wider implications for the global order. China has been increasingly assertive in its foreign policy in recent years, and its involvement in mediating between two of the world's major oil-producing countries could potentially give it greater influence in the Middle East and beyond.


Overall, the AUKUS submarine deal and China's role in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran could potentially have significant implications for the future direction of the world. The AUKUS deal could lead to greater military cooperation between the involved parties, which could potentially shift the global balance of power. China's involvement in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran could potentially give it greater influence in the Middle East and beyond, and potentially challenge the traditional dominance of Western powers in the region.


The AUKUS submarine deal and China's role in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran are two significant developments that could have wider implications for the global order. The AUKUS deal could potentially lead to greater military cooperation between the involved parties, which could shift the global balance of power. China's involvement in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran could potentially give it greater influence in the Middle East and beyond, and challenge the traditional dominance of Western powers in the region. It remains to be seen how these developments will play out, but they are likely to have significant impacts on the future direction of the world.


Opinion

What will this development lead to in logistics?

The development of the AUKUS submarine deal and China's role in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran could potentially lead to various impacts on logistics. Here are some possible scenarios:

  1. Heightened tensions and naval conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region could disrupt shipping routes and logistics, leading to delays and increased transportation costs. This could impact businesses that rely on timely delivery of goods and commodities, and may require them to explore alternative routes or transportation modes.

  2. The deployment of more military assets in the region could increase the risk of incidents involving military vessels, which could potentially impact shipping and logistics. This could lead to disruptions in supply chains and logistics operations, and businesses will need to monitor developments closely to mitigate potential risks.

  3. China's increasing role in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran could potentially lead to greater geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, which could impact global trade and logistics. Businesses may need to reassess their supply chain strategies and adapt to any changes in the global trade environment.

  4. On the other hand, if China's mediation efforts are successful in reducing tensions in the Middle East, it could lead to greater stability and predictability in global oil prices. This could have a positive impact on logistics, as businesses will be able to plan their transportation and logistics operations with more certainty.

The AUKUS submarine deal and China's role in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran could have various impacts on logistics, ranging from increased risks of disruptions to potential benefits from greater stability and predictability in global trade. Businesses will need to closely monitor developments and adapt their strategies accordingly to mitigate potential risks and seize opportunities.


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